World Cup Final Preview

Whoever lifts the Jules Rimet trophy on Sunday night, he'll be doing it wearing a hideous jersey. If only it were Holland-USA instead...




And so here we are, finally at the end of a month-long march that saw some fantastic footie, mixed in with the requisite bad refereeing, shocking upsets, and intriguing controversies. So it is only fitting that the two teams that will meet on Sunday in Berlin have been part of it all themselves: France was the victim of two terrible refereeing decisions in the first round and then sprung two consecutive upsets, first over Spain and then the big one against Brazil, in the knock-out phase; Italy was embroiled in controversy even before the tournament started because of the Serie A scandal, but they only added to it with De Rossi's elbow against the US and Grosso's penalty flop against Australia. Therefore it is France and Italy, rather than any of the other powerful teams that have passed through Germany, that will play for the title this weekend because they, more so than anyone else, have known how to navigate the treachurous road to the Final. Consider that eight of the players on these teams (Buffon, Cannavaro, Zambrotta, Camoranesi, Del Piero, Thuram, Vieira, Trezeguet) play for Italy's Juventus, the central figure in the scandal and a club that will be relegated to Serie B at best, but possibly even Serie C (so why the hell did they need to pay off the refs?) - so most, if not all, of these Juve players don't even know where they'll be suiting up next year, but they've all managed to put the distrations aside and lead their teams to the Final. So, aside from the fact that it'll be like watching a Juve scrimmage, how will it play out on Sunday? With two teams so full of great players, it's a tough one to call. So here's a breakdown for you, position by position, in an effort to find out which captain will be raising the Jules Rimet trophy on Sunday night:

Goalie: Advantage ITALY

And it's not even close. Buffon is the best in the world, Barthez is a liability. It was Barthez's fumble against Portugal that gave Luis Figo a point-blank header to tie the game. In the other semi, Buffon made crucial saves against Lukas Podolksi (our favorite "Sound of Music" character) to keep the Azzurri in the game.

Defense: Advantage ITALY

Again, Italy has the best defense in the world. Cannavaro and Zambrotta are the best in the world at their respective positions, the Azzurri would be watching the Final from back home had it not been for Fabio Grosso, and Marco Materazzi and even Andrea Barzagli have deputized capably for the injured Alessandro Nesta. The fact that the Azzurri have only allowed one goal in six games in the tournament - and it was an own goal, no less - says it all. France, though, is no slouch themselves. In Thuram and Gallas, les Bleus have two of the best ten centerbacks in the world. It has been their flawless defending that has made it almost as hard to score against France as it is against Italy - les Bleus have only allowed two goals all tournament, one a fluke goal against South Korea and the other a penalty kick against Spain. On the wings, Sagnol and Abidal have been solid, if unspectacular, and they complete a formidable backline for France.

Midfield: Advantage FRANCE

Zidane, Vieira, Makelele...say no more. Any time you can line up three of the best midfielders EVER, you have the advantage. Zidane is one of the five greatest players in the history of the sport and he will be even more inspired than ever before in his last game ever. Vieira has arguably been the best player in the tournament; and Makelele, subtle as ever, has been vital in breaking down the opponent's attacks. Of course, the Azzurri have a world-class ball-winner of their own in Gennaro Gattuso. It is Gattuso who helps free Andrea Pirlo to direct Italy's attacks. Both Italy and France play a 4-4-1-1 (just as easily described as a 4-5-1 or a 4-2-3-1) and both have wingers who frequently slide into the center when defending and then move out wide to get overlapped by the defensive wingbacks when attacking. This means that you will see Camoranesi, Perrotta, Ribery and Malouda get forward almost less than Zambrotta, Grosso, Sagnol and Abidal. Of the four midfielders, Camoranesi and Ribery get forward the most on the right, while left-backs Grosso and Abidal love to bomb forward ahead of Perrotta and Malouda. These are two very similar teams that play very similar formations - the midfield battle will be very hotly contested on Sunday.

Attack: Advantage FRANCE

It is hard to know how to judge the attacks of these two teams, since in a 4-4-1-1 formation there is clearly one forward, with a player just behind him that can just as easily be called an attacking midfielder as a reserved striker. That role is filled by Zidane and Totti for their respective teams, but we are lumping them in with the midfield; one interesting difference between the teams is that Totti is much more of a striker than Zidane. While the Frenchman is clearly a midfield playmaker, Totti has been fielded as a forward most of his career. But I digress. So up front, Thierry Henry and Luca Toni will be leading the line for France and Italy. Henry is a monster for Arsenal, but has yet to duplicate that form for France. Meanwhile, Toni has put in only great game so far, the 3-0 win over the Ukraine; the big man is a factor whether he scores or not, but Henry is simply deadly up front. If there is one man who can break past Cannavaro and Buffon, it is Henry.

Bench: Advantage ITALY

And it is a clear advantage. France has David Trezeguet on the bench, but Raymond Domenech appears determined not to give the striker any time at all - so far, Govou and Wiltord have had their numbers called ahead of Trezegol. Plus, Louis Saha managed to pick up a silly yellow card in his 10-minute appearance against Portugal, ruling him out of the final. On the other side, Marcello Lippi has a wealth of options, especially attacking ones, at his disposal. Del Piero, Gilardino, and Inzaghi would find their way into the starting lineups for most teams, but not for the Azzurri. In midfield, Lippi can also call on De Rossi if he needs anyone to give Totti a free face lift. All in all, the Azzurri has much more firepower on the bench than les Bleus.

Coach: Advantage ITALY

Another clear advantage. Domenech might look like a college professor, but I still don't think that he's half as smart as one. You get the feeling that the French veterans are just working this out by themselves, doing the coaching on their own. Meanwhile, Lippi has done one of the best, if not the best, coaching jobs in the whole Cup. He has kept his players focused despite the Serie A scandal back home and the suicide attempt of their former teammate Gianluca Pessotto. On the sidelines, he has made all the right moves, especially his ballsy decision to play four strikers at the end of the Germany match, which led to the winning Italy goals and prevented ze Germans from winning on illegitimate penalty kicks yet again. Lippi's performance has been so good that rumor has it that he has been tapped to take over for Sir Alex Ferguson at ManUtd.

Intangibles: PUSH

And this is really what makes these two teams so remarkable: the way that they have both sheltered themselves from all of the controversies, bunkered down, and taken on an "us-against-the-world" attitude for this tournament. Italy's controversies have been well documented, as they have had more obstacles to overcome than any other team in the Cup, and they have more mental strength than anyone. On the other hand, France has dealt with inner strife, outside criticism, and a nation that seemingly gave up on them while they were still in the tournament. Les Bleus came into the Cup off an unimpressive qualifying campaign, during which they were unable to beat the likes of Israel, and most people believed that the team was too old to do anything in Germany. This pessimism was only increased after a selection fiasco - Barcelona's Ludovic Giuly exploding after not being named to the squad (just a few days ago, he claimed Domenech didn't have the cojones to explain why he had been left off the team) - and a training camp blow-up that erupted when goalie Gregory Coupet was told that he would not be starting - Coupet even left the team and had to be talked back into returning for the squad for the Cup. To make matters worse, striker Djibril Cisse broke his leg in the last friendly before the Cup and had to be replaced. All signs pointed to a France debacle and, after two disappointing draws in the first-round, there was no reason to think otherwise. Even the French fans were booing their team. The detestable politician Le Pen went so far as to claim that the French team wasn't winning because they had too many black players in the squad and didn't truly represent the predominantly-white nation of France. And so it was for all of these reasons that yesterday Zidane said that the final is only for the French fans that have supported them all the way, not the many bandwagon jumpers who have latched themselves to the team with each passing victory. There are no two teams in the world with greater unity or mental strength than these two, so it should be no coincidence that one of them will be raising the World Cup trophy on Sunday night.

(Okay, enough, where's the pick? Who's winning this damn thing? Wait, wait for it - this only comes around once every four years...I'm not done just yet...)

Why Italy will win it:

1. Barthez is a liability. No one trusts him in goal. Heck, I don't even think that Barthez trusts himself. Did you see him after Ronaldo's blast and Figo's miss? He looked like he had just woken up. When you're just hoping that your goalie stays awake and doesn't screw up, that's never a good sign.

2. It is impossible to score on Italy - and if you don't score on a team, then the only way to win is on penalties after a scoreless tie. Then again, that is a realistic possibility.

3. France is old, tired, and worn out after a long, hard road to the Final. Les Bleus have played Spain, Brazil, and Portugal to get here, while the Azzurri have only had to beat Australia, the Ukraine, and Germany. So really Italy only has to win two hard games (Germany, France) to win the Cup, while France has to win their fourth really tough game in a row. And if you look at their performances, Italy is playing better and better, culminating in their Germany win, while France seems to have peaked against Brazil - their win over Portugal was far from impressive and France will need to be at their best if they are to win on Sunday.

4. Lippi can outcoach Domenech if he's drugged, blindfolded, handcuffed, and jailed in a Turkish prison. I'm telling you, this French team has gotten here in spite of Domenech. After the Cup, one of the veterans is going to come right out and say that it has been Zidane, Thuram, Vieira, and Makelele that have been leading this team. Mark my words.

5. France's uniforms are hideous. They might have gone on nice little win streak in their away white jersey, but the shirt still looks like it's from the early 90's. I don't know if that spray-paintish fade across the front is meant to be some new take on the French flag, but I don't like it and I can't see them raising the Cup in it.

Why France will win it:

1. I don't trust Marco Materazzi. He performed admirably against ze Germans, but he is nowhere near as good as the injured Nesta and he is a constant risk to get sent off, as he did against Australia. He is a dirty defender, the refs know it, and don't be surprised if Materazzi doesn't see the final whistle from the field on Sunday. Plus, his sideburns are ridiculous.

2. France might not have to score to win it. Everyone's talking about how impregnable the Azzurri defense is, but France can keep the bulge out of de ole onion bag, too. A nil-nil tie is a very distinct possibility. And if this goes to penalties, France is money: Italy has never won at penalties in World Cup history.

3. These two teams met in Euro 2000. Italy led 1-0 most of the game, but in second half injury time, Sylvain Wiltord scored to send it into extra time. With Zidane leading the charge, David Trezeguet scored the golden goal winner. It was one of the most heartbreaking defeats in the history of international tournaments and we all know what happens with history - it repeats itself.

4. Zidane is God. In baseball, people always ask, "If you could have one pitcher to start Game 7 of the World Series, who would it be?" Well, in soccer, it might be "If you could have one player to captain your team in the World Cup Final, who would it be?" My answer would be Zidane. He is one of the best ever, he is clutch, and he is playing some breathtaking footie right now. With him on the pitch, anything is possible.

5. Italy's uniforms are hideous. In fact, they were rated the worst in the tourney by yours truly way back when this whole shindig got started last month. The gold numbers are bad, the all-blue looks like crap, and the dark blue armpits make it look like all these guys haveforgot to put on deoderant. I refuse to even contemplate the possibility that the Azzurri will raise the trophy wearing such a revolting shirt.

(Ahhh, enough already! Who's winning this damn thing?)

Even though most people (66% according to most online polls) have been picking the Azzurri, I think that this one will be far closer than people expect. I have a hard time imagining that Domenech might be able to coach any team, no matter how stocked with talent, to a World Cup title, but they'll win it in spite of him. And after all the breakdowns and all the analysis, you can throw it all in the trash because the fact is that, after what we've seen over the past couple weeks, it all comes down to one simple fact: I can't pick against Zidane. Period.

The pick: France 1-0, goal by Zidane.