Thursday, June 29, 2006

Elite Eight Preview: Let the Wild Rumpus Begin!

On July 1st in Frankfurt, Zidane will pass the torch to Ronaldinho and wave goodbye for the final time.


And now the real fun begins. After weeks of watching players that you can't identify and rooting passionately for teams that you couldn't care less about, we have arrived at the meat of the tournament. No more Saudi Arabia. No mas Paraguay. It's time for the heavyweights to get down to the task at hand. And as fun as it is to watch underdogs pull off the miraculous upsets we saw four years ago in Japan and Korea, it's even better when that lovable underdog you were rooting for loses and you realize just how mouth-watering the next round's match-ups really are. Case in point: unless you were from Italy, there's no way you could really have been cheering on the Azzurri in their game against the Aussies; but as soon as your anger at Medina Cantalejo's penalty call subsided, you realized that you'd much rather watch the Italians take on former AC Milan star and Ukrainian striker Andriy Shevchenko in the quarterfinals than an Australia-Ukraine game. And so it is that this weekend's slate of games is as full of heavyweight fights as anyone could have hoped for. Here's how it's going down:

Germany vs Argentina

Before the tournament started, I would have picked Argentina to beat the Germans seven times out of 10 on a neutral field. Now, after watching ze Mannschaft play some of the best footie seen at this Cup and the Albiceleste need a once-in-a-lifetime goal to beat Mexico, I'd call it even: five wins for Argentina, five for Germany. So what swings it one way or another? Berlin. With their hometown crowd cheering them on and all of the referee's decisions favoring the host nation, Germany will sneak into the semis. Argentina's vaunted attack will give the suspect German defense all sorts of problems, especially if Tevez and Messi get some serious playing time, but with the way this tournament is going, I think Germany can get its share of goals, too. Expect the Germans, especially the impressive Torsten Frings, to hone in on Riquelme and shut him down with persistent fouls and dogged man-marking, but he'll still find a way to help his attackers get by Mertesacker and Metzelder. At the other end, Ballack is due for a huge game and it's fair to say that there is no attacking duo in the tourney playing with the speed and verve of Klose and Podolski; also, Bastian Schweinsteiger, captain of the tourney's All-Name Team, is far better than any of Mexico's wingers, all of whom ran circles around Argentina's back-up right-back Lionel Scaloni. I see another long afternoon for the Argentine defender. Expect lots of goals. Expect some more bad decisions by the ref. Expect extra time. Expect penalties. And expect Germany to advance.

Italy vs (the) Ukraine

Italy is crap. The Azzurri have a way of playing exceptional defense, but somehow showing no attacking flair whatsoever. Cannavaro, Nesta, Zambrotta, Gattuso and Buffon are simply as good as it gets at the back, but something happens to attackers like Totti, Del Piero, Gilardino, Toni and Pirlo when they put on the blue jersey - their offensive instincts appear to desert them. Against Australia, we saw all the aspects of Italy's play: wonderful defending, zero success in attack, nasty tackling (see Materazzi, Marco), and a con-job on the ref that won the match for them. Against the Ukraine, the Azzurri will be without the injured Nesta and the suspended Materazzi, so the defense will be more vulnerable than usual. To make matters worse, Shevchenko has played against Italian defenses for the past few years in the Serie A; it was just a few weeks ago that he left AC Milan to join Chelsea. Sheva will get a goal against his old calcio friends and enemies and it may prove to be enough to spring the upset of the tournament, but Italy will find a way to win it. Barely.

England vs Portugal

England is another team that, like Italy, has not played well thus far but has done enough to advance. While there is one school of thought that says that England (and Italy) will now start to gel as a unit and play up to their potential, I don't see it happening. The Brits have had four games to start playing like a Cup-winning team and they haven't done it. In their win over Ecuador, they would have been a goal down within 20 minutes had it not been for the help of Ashley Cole and the post. And England scored their lone goal against Ecuador thanks to some shaky free-kick goaltending by el Tri's Cristian Mora - Beckham should take note that Portugal's keeper Ricardo doesn't wear face-paint or look like like he's 12. To make matters worse, Sven Goran Erikkson doesn't seem to have a clue. Not only has he had the last four games of this Cup, but Eriksson has in fact had more than the last four years to come up with a winning line-up. Starting Owen Hargreaves, a defensive midfielder, at right back rings of desperation. England's only hope is for Beckham to continue to carry the team and for Rooney to come good when it matters most. Possible? Yes. Likely? No. Portugal will be without Deco and Costinha and, while Simao will struggle to make anyone forget about the former, both Tiago and Petit may prove to be an upgrade over the latter. Scolari has had Eriksson's number recently, from coaching Brazil to a win over England in '02 to leading this same Portugal team to a win over England just two years ago in the Euro champioships - the third time won't be the charm for the Swede, whose England career will end at the hands of his long-time nemesis. Portugal on penalties.

Brazil vs France

Les Bleus suddenly improved at the start of the knock-out phase, defeating an excellent Spanish squad 3-1. After such a poor start to the tournament, the French legends somehow found a way to re-create the magic of '98 and Euro 2000. Thuram was a tower of strength at the back, Vieira was majestic in midfield, and Zidane always looked dangerous against the Spanish defense, constantly looking to play deadly through-balls into space for Henry (who took a dive in the 82nd minute and conned the ref into giving France the game-winning free kick). Even the new guard, such as Gallas and Ribery, looked fantastic. France might have given the Spanish the bulk of the possession, but they always looked to be the more dangerous side; if they pick up where they left off against the Spaniards - and especially if Henry can do a better job of breaking the offside trap - France can re-live the glory of '98 one more time. Still, Brazil was the pick before the tourney began and, despite appearing to be nowhere near as impressive as everyone had expected, la Canarinha are scoring loads of goals (three vs Ghana, four vs Japan), Ronaldo is the world's most clinical finisher once again, and Kaka and Ronaldinho can pick apart even the strongest defenses (and France has one of the best). Look for Parreira's boys to gain revenge for the disaster in Paris eight years ago, as Zidane is forced into early-retirement by the lethal combination of his former Real Madrid teammate Ronaldo and the person to whom Zidane will pass on the torch of world's best playmaker, Ronaldinho.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with your predictions. I too think it'll be Germany, Italy, Portugal, and Brazil.

5:34 PM

 
Blogger MJ said...

The one team that I have zero confidence in is Italy. The fact that the Ukraine is unquestionably the weakest of the 8 quarterfinalists, but yet I could easily picture them beating Italy 1-0 on a goal by Sheva, says a lot. Whatever happens, it should be a great weekend. (Well, provided the refs don't ruin it...)

6:09 PM

 

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